What's Going to Happen to Substack?

Substack is growing. What does this mean for creators?

We’ve all been waiting for this moment.

The moment when we finally tell an acquaintance, “I publish on Substack,” and hear them reply with, “oh, cool,” instead of, “huh?”

That giddy feeling associated with growing subscriber counts, constant notifications, and all of the other dopamine-boosting goodness that web-based communication has to offer.

It really seems like a golden age for Substack. Celebrities are coming to the platform. There’s been an influx of readers on here—not only writers, but actual readers! And all around there’s this triumphant feeling that, for once, we were the first in the loop.

Writers aren’t typically the most fashionable bunch. I, for one, am always late to the party (on the off chance that I’m invited at all). It’s nice to take comfort in this one little haven of the Internet where the deep thinkers of the world can write and discuss, away from the rampant negativity that exists virtually everywhere else. It’s very nice to see that more people are learning about it.

There’s only one problem. If everyone knows about Substack, that means everyone knows about Substack.

• The people who like to argue with strangers on Twitter (um, X) who feel frustrated that among millions upon millions of voices, theirs gets lost in the cacophony.

• The 'people with ‘fringe’ beliefs who lurk in the corners of 4Chan, Truth Social and other niche social media sites.

The latter group wouldn’t disturb me much if their existence hadn’t already been used as an argument to undermine Substack’s commitment to free speech and free press.

Substack has come under fire numerous times for refusing to deplatform writers who express extreme beliefs such as anti-semitism and white supremacy. Despite these criticisms, its creators have stood firm in their opposition to censorship. This is one of the reasons why Substack has remained such an attractive place for writers—most of us like the idea of enabling all viewpoints and leaving it up to the public to decide what is right.

Substack’s commitment to freedom of expression is admirable. It’s one of the reasons why I choose to post my work on here. However, there is no guarantee that it will stay like this forever. Substack is growing. It is in the company’s best interest right now to stand by the principles that attract writers to their platform. However, will the people in charge maintain this viewpoint when their original business model is no longer the most profitable?

There are 368 million users on X. Two billion on Instagram. This is a far cry from Substack’s 20 million. Most of these people don’t fork over a cent to their social media platform of choice. Even though X offers a monthly subscription, less than one percent of users pay it. How can a platform that makes all of its money from voluntary paid subscriptions compete?

The only answer, of course, is that it can’t. Substack is an alternative publishing platform—a breath of fresh air among biased, ad-dependent media conglomerates. If Substack commits to its original purpose, it will stay this way.

If Substack commits to its original purpose, it will never be as profitable as Facebook or Twitter.

Since the inception of Notes, Substack has taken on a much more ‘social media-like’ quality. Don’t get me wrong, the feature has been fantastic. It’s completely changed the way writers promote themselves and interact with one another—I can’t imagine Substack without it at this point.

Like all things, though, Notes is a double-edged sword. If Substack starts to function like a social media platform, then people are going to treat it like a social media platform.

Consider this conversation I had with

The Bone Writer

(on Substack Notes—like I said, I love this feature).

His original post was an observation about a recent change in the way people treat Notes, and in our converstaion, he brought up a great point—people are coming here from other social media sites because it is so small right now, and offers them the opportunity to be a ‘big fish in a little pond’ and reach more people (check out the whole comment thread; it’s pretty interesting).

This is great in one sense. Who doesn’t want more readers?

On the other hand, now that the opportunity has arrived, will Substack succumb to the temptation to make money like a social media company? If Substack chooses to profit off of ad revenue and the sale of data, it is only a matter of time before Substack becomes yet another polarized echo chamber that exploits its users’ attention for profit.

It doesn’t have to be this way. I believe in the people who run Substack. As long as they resist the promise of dollar signs even in the face of adversity (which will only grow proportionally along with Substack itself), this website will remain a beneficial place for writers and readers.

This is very possible, but it is dependent on two things:

1. Substack’s algorithm must continue to be constructive rather than addictive (and, of course, free of bias and censorship).

2. Advertisers must be kept as far away from Substack as possible. It might seem more profitable to allow ads. Some writers may even favor this option. However, it will ultimately lead to bias and censorship, and will incentivize the algorithm to become more polarizing to best ensnare users’ attention.

They’re very simple things. However, power and money are near-irresistible temptations. Keeping Substack’s integrity will require strong, principled dedication. One may even consider it an act of sacrifice.

However, if you care about free, open communication and high-quality, unbiased writing, Substack is our culture’s last fighting chance. 

Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed this article and would like to support my work, consider subscribing to Thinking Man.

Hell, why not upgrade to paid? Give Substack a reason to stand by their reader-supported business model.